It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him over missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the source of the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the post from a wide position. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
